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NWS CR Evaluation
Comments from Omaha WFO
WRF Model Comparison Eastern Nebraska/southwest Iowa 21Z 10 June 2005 CAPE
- NMM5: The NMM5 model considerably underestimated the CAPE. It predicted CAPEs below 500 J/kg for the state of Nebraska and values of 500-1000 J/kg for western and central Iowa. At 21Z, the CAPEs over southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa measured 1000-1500 J/kg and more than 2000 J/kg over central IA. (RANK 3)
- EM5: The EM5 model did a fairly good job forecasting the CAPEs. It was the only model to accurately predict the higher CAPEs across southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa, and the elevated CAPEs across central Iowa. (RANK 1)
- ARW: The ARW model also predicted the areas of elevated CAPE but the forecasted values were about 500 J/kg lower than the observed 21Z conditions. (RANK 2)