Table of contentsJune 2005 Upgrade Package for High Resolution Window (HRW) Decision Brief
June 2005 Upgrade Package Background – Original Plan
June 2005 Upgrade Package Background – What Changed
June 2005 Upgrade Package The New Plan
Bill Gallus’ DTC Work
June 2005 Upgrade Package Validation of New Plan
HiResWindow Fixed-Domain Nested Runs 21 Sept 2004 Became WRF Runs of Two Control Configurations WRF-ARW at 10km/50levels and WRF-NMM at 8km/60levels
HiResWindow Fixed-Domain Nested Runs 28 June 2005 Become Explicit WRF Runs of Two Control Configs WRF-ARW at 5.8km/35levels and WRF-NMM at 5.1km/35levels
Prior Experience: BAMEX
BAMEX Success: Mode of Convection
Prior Experience: SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004
Domains of Integration for Spring Program NCEP NMM (red/orange), NCAR (blue), CAPS (cyan)
Example of Explicit 4.5 km WRF-NMM courtesy of Jack Kain
HiResWindow WRF Runs vs Eta
4km WRF Runs vs 12km Eta
Matt Pyle’s Web Site Displaying 4.5 km WRF-NMM
Web Site Now Displaying Simulated Reflectivity
Prior Experience: DTC Winter Forecast Experiment
PowerPoint Presentation
Examples of Phenomena Forecast by DWFE WRF Models from a presentation made by Steve Koch to OAR
Narrow Reflectivity Bands: 23 January 2005
Topographically forced Pressure Waves and Snowbands in New England Blizzard: 23 January 2005
Reflectivity Structures in Marine Boundary Layer: 23 January 2005
Mesoscale vortex over Lake Erie: 22 January 2005
DC Metro Snowstorm Bust: 27-28 February 2005 A comparison between two WRF forecasts made 24h apart demonstrating that the synoptic-scale must be forecast correctly as a necessary condition to predicting mesoscale structures accurately
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Loop of 3-hr QPF
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Comparison of NCEP and RTVS methods for calculating ETS & Bias 95% confidence intervals using bootstrapping method are shown
DWFE Forecaster Feedback Pluses Minuses
NCEP’s Explicit WRF HiResWindow Evaluation
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/hiresw5km.east08/index.html
Forecast Examples From Evaluation Period: Shelter Temperature 10 m Wind QPF
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5km QPF Comparison Plot
“Big Picture” 5km Sfc Winds Comparison can’t see anything really meaningful
Local 5km Sfc Winds Comparison Plot
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“Local” 5km Sfc Winds Comparison Plot
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24 hr QPF Verification
NWS Central Region Evaluation Tom Hultquist
NWS CR Evaluation Comments from Omaha WFO
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NWS CR Evaluation Comments from Sullivan WFO
NWS Central Region Recommendation
NWS ER Evaluation Comments from Josh Watson
NWS Eastern Region Recommendation
NCEP Service Center Evaluations HPC Pete Manousos
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NCEP Service Center Evaluations - HPC
NCEP Service Center Evaluations SPC Steve Weiss
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NCEP Service Center Evaluations - SPC
Summary
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