GFS/NCEP Ensemble Potential Vorticity (theta=350K) Comparison: vt 00-132h (EastPac)

Forecast Initial Time: 2009031612

Date last updated: 03/16/09 15:18:00 EST

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--- Atlantic Basin ---

Product Comparison Forecast Time/Interval
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean MSLP (overlay) 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Z500 (overlay) 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 200 mb Wind 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Wind 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 700 mb Wind 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 850 mb Wind 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 10m Wind 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 200-850 mb Wind Shear 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Potential Vorticity (theta=340K) 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Potential Vorticity (theta=345K) 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Potential Vorticity (theta=350K) 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)

--- Eastern Pacific Basin ---

Product Comparison Forecast Time/Interval
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean MSLP (overlay) 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Z500 (overlay) 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 200 mb Wind 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Wind 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 700 mb Wind 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 850 mb Wind 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 10m Wind 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 200-850 mb Wind Shear 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Potential Vorticity (theta=340K) 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Potential Vorticity (theta=345K) 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Potential Vorticity (theta=350K) 00-132h (all maps) 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132
144-228h (all maps) 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)

--- Experimental Ensemble-Based Strike Probabilities ---

NOTE: These probability forecasts, like any forecasts, have biases. We are currently investigating techniques to calibrate these probabilities and minimize the biases. The products displayed below show the raw, uncalibrated probabilities.

NCEP Ensemble-based strike probability plots













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