GFS/NCEP Ensemble Potential Vorticity (theta=350K) Comparison: Days 0 to 5 (Atlantic)
Forecast Initial Time: 2009031512
Date last updated: 03/15/09 15:18:20 EST
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--- Atlantic Basin ---
Product Comparison
Forecast Time/Interval
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean MSLP (overlay)
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Z500 (overlay)
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 200 mb Wind
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Wind
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 700 mb Wind
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 850 mb Wind
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 10m Wind
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 200-850 mb Wind Shear
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Potential Vorticity (theta=340K)
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Potential Vorticity (theta=345K)
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Potential Vorticity (theta=350K)
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
--- Eastern Pacific Basin ---
Product Comparison
Forecast Time/Interval
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean MSLP (overlay)
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Z500 (overlay)
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 200 mb Wind
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Wind
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 700 mb Wind
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 850 mb Wind
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 10m Wind
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean 200-850 mb Wind Shear
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Potential Vorticity (theta=340K)
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Potential Vorticity (theta=345K)
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
GFS / NCEP Ensemble Mean Potential Vorticity (theta=350K)
00-132h (all maps)
00
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144-228h (all maps)
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
Days 0 to 5 (maps every 24h)
--- Experimental Ensemble-Based Strike Probabilities ---
NOTE: These probability forecasts, like any forecasts, have biases. We are currently investigating techniques to calibrate these probabilities and minimize the biases. The products displayed below show the raw, uncalibrated probabilities.
NCEP Ensemble-based strike probability plots