Description: Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) "annual means" measure the average skill of GEFS forecasts during a given year. An annual mean CRPS of 0 denotes perfect GEFS forecasts during a given year. The larger the annual mean CRPS is (i.e., the greater than 0 the CRPS is), the worse GEFS forecasts were during a given year. CRPS for Day 1, Day 3, Day 5, and Day 10 forecasts are shown in black, red, blue, and green lines, respectively. Note that short-range GEFS forecasts (e.g., Day 1) have more skill than longer-range GEFS forecasts (e.g., Day 10). A decrease in CRPS from left to right indicates that GEFS forecasts have improved over time, while an increase in CRPS from left to right indicates that GEFS forecasts have worsened over time.

Description: Brier Skill Score (BSS) "annual means" measure the accuracy of the GEFS forecast relative to climatology during a given year. An annual mean BSS of 1 denotes perfect skill compared to climatology, 0 denotes no skill improvement over climatology, and a negative value denotes that the forecast is worse than climatology. BSS for Day 1, Day 3, Day 5, and Day 10 forecasts are shown in black, red, blue, and green lines, respectively. Note that short-range GEFS forecasts (e.g., Day 1) have more skill than longer-range GEFS forecasts (e.g., Day 10). An increase in BSS from left to right indicates that GEFS forecasts have improved over time, while a decrease in BSS from left to right indicates that GEFS forecasts have worsened over time. Note: This plot shows BSS for 24-h precipitation thresholds >1.0 mm.

Description: Brier Skill Score (BSS) "annual means" measure the accuracy of the GEFS forecast relative to climatology during a given year. An annual mean BSS of 1 denotes perfect skill compared to climatology, 0 denotes no skill improvement over climatology, and a negative value denotes that the forecast is worse than climatology. BSS for Day 1, Day 3, Day 5, and Day 10 forecasts are shown in black, red, blue, and green lines, respectively. Note that short-range GEFS forecasts (e.g., Day 1) have more skill than longer-range GEFS forecasts (e.g., Day 10). An increase in BSS from left to right indicates that GEFS forecasts have improved over time, while a decrease in BSS from left to right indicates that GEFS forecasts have worsened over time. Note: This plot shows BSS for 24-h precipitation thresholds >5.0 mm.

Description: Brier Skill Score (BSS) "annual means" measure the accuracy of the GEFS forecast relative to climatology during a given year. An annual mean BSS of 1 denotes perfect skill compared to climatology, 0 denotes no skill improvement over climatology, and a negative value denotes that the forecast is worse than climatology. BSS for Day 1, Day 3, Day 5, and Day 10 forecasts are shown in black, red, blue, and green lines, respectively. Note that short-range GEFS forecasts (e.g., Day 1) have more skill than longer-range GEFS forecasts (e.g., Day 10). An increase in BSS from left to right indicates that GEFS forecasts have improved over time, while a decrease in BSS from left to right indicates that GEFS forecasts have worsened over time. Note: This plot shows BSS for 24-h precipitation thresholds >10.0 mm.

Description: Brier Skill Score (BSS) "annual means" measure the accuracy of the GEFS forecast relative to climatology during a given year. An annual mean BSS of 1 denotes perfect skill compared to climatology, 0 denotes no skill improvement over climatology, and a negative value denotes that the forecast is worse than climatology. BSS for Day 1, Day 3, Day 5, and Day 10 forecasts are shown in black, red, blue, and green lines, respectively. Note that short-range GEFS forecasts (e.g., Day 1) have more skill than longer-range GEFS forecasts (e.g., Day 10). An increase in BSS from left to right indicates that GEFS forecasts have improved over time, while a decrease in BSS from left to right indicates that GEFS forecasts have worsened over time. Note: This plot shows BSS for 24-h precipitation thresholds >25.0 mm.