The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts by generating an ensemble of multiple forecasts, each slightly different (i.e., perturbed) from the original forecast, in order to capture the range of possible forecast outcomes.
This webpage provides information on operational GEFS forecast skill.
Please use the links on the left to navigate to GEFS verification statistics.
Additional Information:
GEFSv12 is the current operational version of GEFS. GEFSv12 is run 4-times daily (0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC) with 31 ensemble members. The 0000 UTC run extends out to 35 days, while the 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC runs extend out to 16 days. You can learn more about the GEFSv12 configuration here.
GEFSv12 Official Evaluation Webpage: [click here].
