This webpage displays forecasts from several experimental configurations of the operational (2D-RTMA/URMA) and 3-dimensional Real Time Mesocale Analysis/Unrestricted Mesoscale Analysis (3D-RTMA/URMA):
2D-RTMA (CONUS,AK,HI,PR,Guam): The production 2D-RTMA was developed to support NDFD operations and provide field forecasters with high quality analyses for nowcasting, situational awareness, and forecast verification purposes. The system produces hourly analyses at 2.5 km resolution for the Conus NDFD grid, 3 km for the Alaska NDFD grid and 2.5 km for the Hawaii, Puerto-Rico and Guam NDFD grids.
2D-RTMA-Rapid Update(RU) (CONUS): The production 2D-RTMA utilizes only the CONUS NDFD grid with an analysis cadence of 15 minutes.
2D-URMA (CONUS,AK,HI,PR): The production 2D-RTMA was developed to support NDFD operations and provide field forecasters with high quality analyses for nowcasting, situational awareness, and forecast verification purposes. The system produces hourly analyses at 2.5 km resolution for the Conus NDFD grid, 3 km for the Alaska NDFD grid and 2.5 km for the Hawaii, Puerto-Rico and Guam NDFD grids. URMA employs a 6 hour latency for each analysis in order to obtain the complete set of pre-processing observations which are omitted in RTMA.
3D-RTMA HRRR(CONUS): A 3-dimensional RTMA prototype covering the CONUS and employing production High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast products for the first guess, observational data derived from MRMS radar reflectivity data and lightning, cloud, satellite wind bufr and prepbufr tanks to produce an hourly analysis contrained by Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) ensemble forecast products for the background error covariance.
3D-RTMA RRFS(North America): A 3-dimensional RTMA prototype covering North America and employing developmental Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) products for the first guess which includes two 6-h spinup cycles with hourly DA and 24 product cycles with hourly DA. Spinup cycles are coldstarted from 03/15Z GFS forecasts. Product cycles are started from 1-h forecasts from the 08/20Z spinup cycles, with 60-h forecasts at 00/12Z and 18-h forecasts at other times. The observational and analysis components mimic those employed in the HRRR-based 3D-RTMA.
3D-RTMA RRFS(Guam): A 3-dimensional RTMA prototype covering Guam and configured in a manner consistent with the North American domain RTMA parallel.
3D-URMA RRFS(North America): A 3-dimensional URMA prototype covering North America and employing developmental Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) products for the first guess which includes two 6-h spinup cycles with hourly DA and 24 product cycles with hourly DA. Spinup cycles are coldstarted from 03/15Z GFS forecasts. Product cycles are started from 1-h forecasts from the 08/20Z spinup cycles, with 60-h forecasts at 00/12Z and 18-h forecasts at other times. The observational and analysis components mimic those employed in the HRRR-based 3D-RTMA. The is a 6-hr run-time offset to allow for a complete incorporation of observational data that is normally excluded in the RTMA configuration.
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The following types of plots are available:
(1) 4-panel plots of 2D-RTMA/RTMA-RU/URMA CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Guam of wind gust at 10 meters, temperature at 2 meters, visibility, dew point at 2 meters, wind speed at 10 meters, wind vectors at 10 meters, surface pressure, total cloud amount, cloud ceiling, and specific humidity.
(2) 3-panel plots of the 3D-RTMA HRRR(CONUS), 3D-RTMA RRFS(North America), 3D-URMA RRFS(North America), and 3D-URMA RRFS(Guam) model background, analysis, and increment output.
(3) RMSE and Bias plots derived from the 3D-RTMA RRFS(North America) and 2D operational RTMA parallel for the following fields: 2m Temperature, surface pressure, 2m specific humidity, amd 10m wind speeds.
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DISCLAIMER: This webpage is not "operational" and is not subject to 24-h monitoring by NCEP's Central Operations staff.
These forecasts run on the development WCOSS2 (Cactus or Dogwood)
and will not complete when the machine is unavailable.