Forecast Verification for Extratropical Cyclone Tracks Under construction

Seasonally and yearly verification

This page displays seasonally and yearly statistics of extratropical cyclone tracks from several models. For simplicity, a season is categoried in sequential months: Jan-Mar as Winter, Apr-Jun as Spring, Jul-Sep as Summer, Oct-Dec as Fall. These statistics include forecast position error, X-bias, and Y-bias verified against model analysis. The tracks are from NCEP/EMC operational storm tracker and for short term verification (see tracker).

Seasonal cyclone track errors Spring Summer Fall Winter 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Yearly cyclone track errors 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Time series and errors at 84hr and 120hr 84hr 120hr 84hr 120hr

Monthly summary of forecast cyclone X-bias 2008 2007 January February March April May June July August September September October October November November December December Year stats Year stats Bar chart Bar chart

Monthly summary of forecast cyclone Y-bias 2008 2007 January February March April May June July August September September October October November November December December Year stats Year stats Bar chart Bar chart

For questions on the EMC/MMB cyclone tracks, email Guang.Ping.Lou@noaa.gov or Geoff.DiMego@noaa.gov