TRAINING ON THE USE OF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

Statistical Downscaling Approach and its Application - PPT - 12 Apr 2007

Tropical-Extratropical Interactions Case Study - PPT - 23 Nov 2005

WSR-2005 - PPT - 23 Nov 2005

Advanced Warnings for High Impact Weather - PPT - 7 Nov 2005

Adaptive Use of AQUA Brightness Temperatures in Winter Storm Recon Case Studies - PPT - 11 Oct 2005

Probabilistic Forecasting - PDF - 28 Mar 2005

Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasting - PDF - 28 Mar 2005

Predictability Research with Indian Monsoon Examples - PDF - 28 Mar 2005

North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) - PDF - 28 Mar 2005

Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP - PDF - 28 Mar 2005

Weather Forecast Process and Uncertainty - PDF - 28 Mar 2005
WSR-2004 - PDF - 23 Nov 2005  (updated)

General Description of the Weather Forecast Process with Emphasis on Forecast Uncertainty - PDF - 22 Feb 2005

Present status and future directions for ensemble forecasting at NCEP - PDF - June 16, 2004    

Review of North American Ensemble Forecast System - PDF - June 3, 2004    

PROBABILISTIC FORECATSTS AND THEIR VERIFICATION - POWERPOINT PRESENTATION - 11 May 2004

PERFORMANCE OF EXPERIMENTAL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS WITH MULTIPLE VERSIONS OF NCEP's GFS MODEL - POWERPOINT PRESENTATION - JANUARY 2004

RESULTS FROM THE WSR 2002-2003 - POWERPOINT PRESENTATION - JANUARY 2004

OVERVIEW OF PREDICTABILITY RELATED WORK AT NCEP - PDF FILE - week of 10 NOVEMBER 2003

THORPEX - POWERPOINT PRESENTATION - 5 NOVEMBER 2003

THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM - POWERPOINT PRESENTATION - 30 SEPTEMBER 2003

RECENT CHANGES IN THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM - POWERPOINT PRESENTATION - 19 SEPTEMBER 2003

TRACK VERIFICATION - POWERPOINT PRESENTATION - 4 SEPTEMBER 2003

POWERPOINT PRESENTATION - SAVANNAH, GEORGIA; 19 FEBRUARY 2003

METHODS TO EVALUATE PROBABILISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS - POWERPOINT PRESENTATION - EMC; 5 NOVEMBER 2002

INTERCOMPARISON OF THE CANADIAN, ECMWF, AND NCEP ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEMS - POWERPOINT PRESENTATION

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING AT NCEP - POWERPOINT PRESENTATION

NOAA THORPEX INITIATIVE - POWERPOINT PRESENTATION

VALIDATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS - SLIDES FROM A PRESENTATION, SEPTEMBER 2002

ADAPTIVE OBSERVATIONS AT THE NWS: THE WINTER STORM RECONNAISSANCE PROGRAM - SLIDES FROM A PRESENTATION, JULY 2002

GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECASTING AT NCEP - SLIDES FROM A PRESENTATION, NOV. 2000 (SHORT VERSION)

ENSEMBLES IN CLIMATE FORECASTING - SLIDES FROM A PRESENTATION, MARCH 2002

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

ON THE USE AND VALUE OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS

BIAS-CORRECTED PROBABILISTIC QPF FORECASTS  - SLIDES FROM A GCIP/GAPP PRESENTATION

ECONOMIC VALUE OF FORECASTS
 

EXAMPLES:

    VARIATIONS IN FORECAST RELIABILITY

    A WEATHER EVENT WITH EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH PREDICTABILITY

    A "FALSE ALARM" CASE WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY

    A "RUN OF THE MILL" CASE WITH HIGH PREDICTABILITY

    IMPACT OF TARGETED OBSERVATIONS, 2000020900

    CAN REGIME CHANGES BE PREDICTED?

    REGIME CHANGE FORECAST AT 15-DAY LEAD TIME

   THE SNOW STORM OF 4-6 MARCH 2001 - CAN WEE FORESEE DIFFICULTIES?

    A HIGHLY PREDICTABLE HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT

    A CASE WITH A HIGHLY PREDICTABLE SMALL, AND A POORLY PREDICTABLE LARGE SCALE FEATURE

    ASSESSING HIGH AND LOW PREDICTABILITY IN REAL TIME
 
 

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