THORPEX PI workshop

NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP

January 17-19, 2006 at NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

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Purpose

To develop stronger collaboration among NOAA THORPEX grantees, researchers at NOAA Labs, and the operational community of NCEP/NWS in anticipation of possible future transition of successful research results into operations.

Summary

Draft Recommendations

Agenda

Tuesday, January 17 in room 707

8:00 - 8:30	Refreshments
8:30 - 8:40	Steve Lord Welcome
8:40 - 8:45	Zoltan Toth Introduction/Logistics
*Morning Session:* Use of ensembles in data assimilation
8:45 - 9:10	Jeff Whitaker Ensemble Data Assimilation in the NCEP GFS
9:10 - 9:35	Shree Khare / J Anderson Ensemble filtering at NCAR and the importance of four-dimensional localization
9:35 - 10:00	Milija Zupanski Assimilation of real observations using the GFS models and the Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter
10:00 - 10:15	Discussion
10:15 - 10:45	*BREAK*
10:45 - 11:15	*Istvan Szunyogh* Implementation of the the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter on the NCEP GFS
11:15 - 11:45	*Craig Bishop* Issues in ensemble based data assimilation
11:45 - 12:00	Discussion
12:00 -13:00	*LUNCH* brought in, make selection before morning breaktime
*Afternoon Session:* Use of ensembles in data assimilation
13:00 -13:25	*Pete Houtekamer* Addition of time interpolation in the ensemble Kalman filter
13:25 -13:50	Xuguang Wang A Comparison of Hybrid Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter3DVAR and Ensemble Square-Root Filter Analysis Schemes
13:50 - 14:15	Mozheng Wei The use of the Ensemble Transform technique for generating initial ensemble perturbations
14:15 - 14:30	*Discussion*
14:30 - 15:00	*BREAK*
15:00 - 15:25	Eugenia Kalnay 4D-Var or EnKF
15:25 - 16:00	*Discussion*
16:00 - 16:30	General discussion with Rick Rosen and Louis Uccellini
16:30 - 17:30	Ensemble-based data assimilation intercomparison project working group meeting (project participants)
17:30	*Adjourn*
18:30	*Group Dinner* arrangements TBD

Wednesday, January 18

8:00 - 8:30	Refreshments
*Morning Session:* Model-related uncertainty in room 209
8:30 - 8:55	Joao Teixeira Model Uncertainty in Ensemble Design: Time-Step Truncation Error and Stochastic Parameterizations
8:55 - 9:20	Chris Danforth Estimation and correction of weather model errors
9:20 - 9:45	Dingchen Hou A Stochastic Perturbation Scheme For Representing Model Related Uncertainty
9:45 - 10:00	*Discussion*
10:00 - 10:30	*BREAK*
10:30 - 10:55	Tom Hamill Accounting for the error due to unresolved scales in ensemble data assimilation
10:55 - 11:20	Zoltan Toth / Malaquias Pena Reducing model drift induced forecast errors
11:20 - 12:00	*Discussion*
12:00 - 13:00	*LUNCH* brought in, make selection by morning breaktime
Afternoon Session: High-impact modeling in room 707
13:00 - 13:25	David Bacon Site-Specific and Event-Specific Critical Weather Forecasting: A Global to Local Problem
13:25 - 13:50	Xingren Wu / Robert Grumbine Sea ice in the NCEP forecast system
13:50 - 14:15	Julian Wang Weather-climate connection from a regional modeling point of view
14:15 - 14:30	*Discussion*
14:30 - 15:00	*BREAK*
15:00 - 15:25	HS Chen An Ensemble Global Ocean Wave Forecast System
15:25 - 15:50	Ken Mitchell The new Noah LSM in the NCEP GFS: pre-operational tests, and implications for ensemble land states and snowpack simulation for THORPEX-IPY
15:50 - 16:15	Jim Purser Tools for Anisotropic Covariances at NCEP
16:15 - 17:30	*Discussion*
17:30	*Adjourn*

Thursday, January 19 in room 707

8:00 - 8:30	Refreshments
*Morning Session:* Adaptive collection/use of observations
8:30 - 8:55	Howard Berger / Chris Velden A new quality indicator for GOES-derived winds and its effect on NWP data impact experiments
8:55 - 9:20	Terry Hock Driftsonde Status and 2006 Field Deployment Plan
9:20 - 9:45	Sharan Majumdar Predicting the influence of observations on 3-7 day forecasts
9:45 - 10:00	*Discussion*
10:00 - 10:30	*BREAK*
11:00 - 11:30	Robert Atlas / Dave Emmitt Observing System Simulation Experiments in support of THORPEX
11:30 - 12:00	Michiko Masutani OSSE at NCEP
12:00 - 12:30	*Discussion*
12:30 - 13:00	*LUNCH* brought in, make selection by morning breaktime
Afternoon Session: Socio-economic applications / IPY
13:00 - 13:25	Dave Chapman "Looks like Rain": The Value of Improved Weather Forecasts
13:25 - 13:50	James Partain THORPEX-IPY plans and activities in the Alaskan Region
13:50 - 14:15	Yuejian Zhu New products from the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
14:15 - 14:30	*Discussion*
14:30 - 15:00	*BREAK*
15:00 - 15:25	Dave Parsons The Pacific-Asian Regional Campaign (PARC) and its links with the International Polar Year (IPY)
15:25 - 15:50	Communicating forecast uncertainty (short presentations by Robert Kelly, Joe Sienkiewicz, Ed O'Lenic, James Partain
15:50 - 16:20	Discussion on forecast uncertainty
16:20 - 16:50	*Discussion on socio-economic applications / IPY*
16:50 - 17:20	*General Discussion*
17:20 - 17:30	Closing remarks
17:30	*Adjourn*

Important Topics

Two themes addressed by multiple PIs will be highlighted by inviting additional experts:
a) Ensemble-based data assimilation (3rd workshop held at EMC/NCEP on this topic)
b) Representation of model-related uncertainty in ensemble forecasting

Invitees

NOAA THORPEX PIs, a few national & international experts on ensemble-based data assimilation & representation of model related errors in ensemble forecasting, national & international THORPEX representatives.

Attendee	Affiliation
Arif Albayrak	Colorado State University
David P Bacon	SAIC
Howard Berger	University of Wisconsin
Craig Bishop	Naval Research Laboratory
David Chapman	Stratus Consulting
Chris Danforth	University of Maryland
Elana Fertig	University of Maryland
John Gaynor	NOAA
Tom Hamill	NOAA/ESRL
Terry Hock	NCAR
Peter Houtekamer	Meteorological Service of Canada
Ming Ji	NOAA/OGP
Eugenia Kalnay	University of Maryland
Ji-Sun Kang	University of Maryland
Shree Khare	NCAR
Eric Kostelich	University of Maryland
Hong Li	University of Maryland
Junjie Liu	University of Maryland
Sharan Majumdar	University of Miami
Ed Ott	University of Maryland
David Parsons	Co-chair, NATSSC
Rick Rosen	NOAA
Ananthakrishna Sarma	SAIC
Kathryn Sellwood	University of Miami
Istvan Szunyogh	University of Maryland
Joao Teixeira	NATO Undersea Research Centre
Steve Tracton	ONR
Xuguang Wang	University of Colorado
Julian Wang	NOAA/ARL
Jeffrey Whitaker	NOAA/ESRL
Milija Zupanski	Colorado State University

Tele-participant	Affiliation
Robert Atlas	NASA/GSFC
Dezso Devenyi	NOAA/ESRL
Dave Emmitt	NASA/GSFC
James Partain	NWS Alaska
Mel Shapiro	NCAR
Chris Velden	University of Wisconsin

NCEP Attendees

HS Chen

John Derber

Jun Du

David Feit

Dingchen Hou

Mark Iredell

Bob Kelly

Steve Lord

Jeff Mcqueen

Ken Mitchell

Ed Olenic

Malaquias Pena

Joe Sienkiewicz

Zoltan Toth

Louis Uccellini

Mozheng Wei

Xingren Wu

Yuejian Zhu

A/V FACILITIES FOR SPEAKERS

The meeting room will be equipped with one overhead projector and a computer supporting electronic presentations (Web, Microsoft, etc).

LOCAL AREA INFORMATION

DC Metro Area Airports & Hotels

Airport Directions document

Master List of nearby Hotels

Maps for Metro-system Users: National Airport Metro Station

Old Town Alexandria & Metro

Old Town Alexandria Hotels

Hotel websites Old Town Alexandria Area

Colony South Hotel

DC Metro Area	Airports & Hotels
	Airport Directions document
	Master List of nearby Hotels
Maps for Metro-system Users:	National Airport Metro Station
	Old Town Alexandria & Metro
	Old Town Alexandria Hotels
Hotel websites	Old Town Alexandria Area
	Colony South Hotel