HWRF  trunk@4391
HWRF Ensembles

There are two different HWRF ensembles:

  1. A twenty-one member HWRF 3km 126hr forecast ensemble from GEFS input and boundary conditions.
  2. A deterministic HWRF forecast with data assimilation whose ensemble covariances come from 30-80 six hour forecasts, each initialized off of one member of the GFS ENKF. The deterministic forecast is initialized off of the GFS and GDAS.

You cannot use both options at the same time.

To run the GEFS-based forecast ensemble: 

./run_hwrf.py 01-20 2014 19w HISTORY config.EXPT=(whatever) \
   ../parm/hwrf_43lev.conf ../parm/hwrf_3km.conf ../parm/hwrf_ensemble.conf \
   config.run_gsi=no config.run_ensemble_da=no

The 01-20 selects the GEFS members (00 through 20 are valid) and the ../parm/hwrf_ensemble_2014.conf overrides various settings to properly run the ensemble.

To run the deterministic forecast with 6hr HWRF forecasts driving the GSI: 

./run_hwrf.py 2014 19w HISTORY config.EXPT=(whatever) config.run_ensemble_da=yes \
   prelaunch.basin_overrides=no

Note the lack of ensemble IDs. The config.run_ensemble_da=yes enables the DA ensemble. To set the number of ensemble members, use the ensda_size option in the [hwrf_da_ens] section: 

./run_hwrf.py ... stuff ... hwrf_da_ens.ensda_size=57

any number from 30 to 80 is valid. It will automatically choose GFS ENKF ensemble members from 001 through the number you choose. The highest valid value is 80, and the scripts will give you an error if you try to use fewer than 30 ensemble members.

GEFS-Based HWRF Forecast

The GEFS-based HWRF ensemble uses no data assimilation and runs at 27:9:3 km resolution with 43 levels and a 50 mbar model top. This is essentially the 2013 HWRF, but with upgraded physics. There are built-in physics perturbations in both the convection and planetary boundary layer physics.

Presently, you can only run the ensemble on the Jet machine because the scripts (in parm/hwrf_input.conf) only know where to find data there. Theoretically, one could obtain data some other way, but that would require first updating hwrf_input.conf.

Real-Time GEFS HWRF Forecasts

The trunk is set up to run the GEFS-based ensemble in retrospective mode, but one minor correction is needed for a real-time run with Rocoto. In the Rocoto scripts, the time dependency for the launcher job must be changed or the init jobs will start too soon: 

  <timedep><cyclestr offset="3:20:00">@Y@m@d@H@M@S</cyclestr></timedep>

That must be changed: 

  <timedep><cyclestr offset="4:20:00">@Y@m@d@H@M@S</cyclestr></timedep>

The reason is that the parent model, the GEFS, does not start producing data until T+4:42. If the jobs start at T+3:20, they'll hit their wallclock limit before the input is available.

Configuration Options

Some of the configuration options described in the main configuration page (see HWRF Experiment Configuration) can be turned on with the GEFS-based HWRF ensemble.

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