OPERATION/EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FORECAST COMPARISON:

GFS ---> NCEP forecasts from T12Z
ECM ---> ECMWF forecasts from T12Z
E-G ---> GFS model runs ECMWF initial condition from T12Z
G-E ---> ECMWF model runs GFS initial condition from T12Z
D-O ---> Die-off, E-G ---> Error Growth,
500 hPa Height AC Scores and RMS Errors
NH AC/RMS 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day 6-day die-off err-grow
SH AC/RMS 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day 6-day die-off err-grow

850 hPa Wind (Tropical only)
U-wind 1-day 2-day 3-day die-off err-grow
V-wind 1-day 2-day 3-day die-off err-grow
W-speed 1-day 2-day 3-day die-off err-grow
W-vector 1-day 2-day 3-day No err-grow

200 hPa Wind (Tropical only)
U-wind 1-day 2-day 3-day die-off err-grow
V-wind 1-day 2-day 3-day die-off err-grow
W-speed 1-day 2-day 3-day die-off err-grow
W-vector 1-day 2-day 3-day No err-grow

Notes for global model precipitation forecast evaluation:

GFS ---> NCEP global forecast system (1X1 degree)
E-G ---> NCEP GFS model runs ECMWF initial condition (1X1 degree)
24 hours rain gauge observation reports: 7000-8000
Total verified boxs: 1100 at 80X80 km over Northern American

Please refer to this page for calcula tions

24 hours accumulated precipitation (mm)

DATE|FCST

12-36 hrs

36-60 hrs

60-84 hrs
Current
Yes
Yes
Yes

Precipitation forecasts (time series)

Time|THRESHOLD

0.2 mm/24h

2.0 mm/24h

5.0 mm/24h

10. mm/24h

15. mm/24h

25. mm/24h
12-36 hrs
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
36-60 hrs
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
60-84 hrs
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Click here to go to gif files directory for more maps.

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