NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

GFS PERFORMANCE STATISTICS

Comparison of 00z 06z 12z and 18z Cycles; Each cycle verified against its own analysis

*For information, contact: fanglin.yang@noaa.gov

Go to weather maps; Go to standard stats

EXTRATROPICS - lats 20-80 N and S, 500-hPa height.

Time series of anomaly correlation forecast day 5

Time series of rms height error for forecast day 5

Time series of rms hgt err, 120h fcst vs 114h update from next cycle NH,SH, N America, tropics.

Time series of rms hgt err, 120h fcst vs 114h update from next cycle cycles plotted separately - NH,SH, N America

Time series of area-mean height error for forecast day 5

Decay curves of 45-day average 500-mb height anomaly correlation vs forecast length for various zonal wave numbers, out to forecast day 9.

Decay curves of 45-day average 1000-mb height anomaly correlation vs forecast length for various zonal wave numbers, out to forecast day 9.

Decay curves 2004,  2005  2006 2007 2008 2009 of annual average 500-mb height anomaly correlation vs forecast length for various zonal wave numbers, out to fcast day 9.

Decay curves 2004,  2005  2006 2007 2008 2009 of annual average 1000-mb height anomaly correlation vs forecast length for various zonal wave numbers, out to fcast day 9.

AC as a function of verif date and fcst length 500-mb height anomaly correlation waves 1-20, days 1-12.

Growth curves of time-averaged RMS height error vs forecast length.

Scatter diagrams - daily anomaly correlation for various forecast lengths and wave numbers model vs model - updated twice a month.

Frequency distribution of anomaly correlation for 5-day forecasts - averaged over about 3 months

RMS and mean height error, 500 hPa by region, forecast day 5, time series

Standard dev of absolute 200-hPa vector 2-day wind error and windspeed error by region. Time series of 2-day forecasts, updated monthly

Standard dev of absolute 850-hPa vector 3-day wind error and windspeed error by region.

TROPICS - rms and mean wind errors, 200 hPa and 850 hPa.

Daily scores - rms vector wind error - time series, forecast day 3

Daily scores - rms errors of u-components - time series, forecast day 3

Daily scores - rms errors of v-components - time series, forecast day 3

Daily scores - anomaly correlations of u-component - time series, forecast day 3

Daily scores - anomaly correlations of v-component - time series, forecast day 3

Growth curves of time-averaged rms vector wind error vs forecast length

Growth curves of time-averaged mean windspeed error vs forecast length

Decay curves out to forecast day 5 of time-averaged anomaly correlation vs forecast length for the v-component of the wind in the tropics at two levels - various wave numbers, many models

CONTINUITY by regions Standard deviation between successive forecasts, cycle-to-cycle.

5-day forecasts, 500-mb height

7-day forecasts, 500-mb height

48-h forecasts, 200-mb wind vector