2009

Zhu, Y., Z. Toth and etc. 2009: Status and Upgrade of NAEFS and NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System. AGU Spring Joint Assembly, May 24-27 2009, Toronto, Canada

Zhu, Y., Z. Toth and etc. 2009: Research and Operational Applications in Multi-Center Ensemble. AGU Spring Joint Assembly, May 24-27 2009, Toronto, Canada

Zhu, Y., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, D. Hou and B. Cui. 2009: Upgrade of NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System. 23rd Conference on WAF/19th Conference on NWP, 1-5 June 2009, Omaha, Nebraska

Zhu, Y., Z. Toth, D. Hou, M. Pena, Q. Zhang and J. Gottschalck, 2009: NAEFS/GEFS Extended Forecast. 21st Conference of Climate Variability and Changes, 11-15 January 2009 Phoenix, Arizona

Zhu, Y., 2008: Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction: Global Ensemble and Uncertainty Forecast. Summer School of NUIST, June 21-25 2008, Nanjing, China

Zhu, Y., Z. Toth and etc. 2008: TIGGE and NAEFS: Research and Operational Developments in Multi-Center Ensemble Forecasting. AGU Spring Joint Assembly, May 27-30 2008, Fort Lauderdale, FL

Yuejian Zhu, Zoltan Toth, Dingchen Hou and malaquias Pena Mendes, Qin Zhang and Jon Gottschalck, 2009: NAEFS/GEFS Extended Forecast. 21st Conference on climate variability and changes, Jan. 14-18, 2009, Phoenix, AZ.

Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth, Yuejian Zhu and Weiyu Yang, 2009: Improvement and Implementation of A Stochastic Perturbation Scheme in GEFS. 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction. June 1-5, 2009, Omaha, NE.

Zhu, Yuejian, Z. Toth, R. Wobus, D. Hou, and B. Cui, 2009: Upgrade of NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System. 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction. June 1-5, 2009, Omaha, NE.

Toth, Zoltan and Dingchen Hou, 2009: Calibration of Hydro-meteorological Ensemble Forecast at NCEP. The 4th HEPEX Workshop, Toulouse, France, 15-18 June, 2009.

Song, Y. and Z. Toth, 2009: Working Group on Space-based Lidar Winds An update on the winter time T-PARC field stage, Wintergreen, VA: June 17-19. 2008

Hou, D., K. Mitchell, Z. Toth, D. Lohmann and H. Wei, 2008: Predictability Experiments with a River Flow Ensemble Forecast System. Computational Methods in Water Resouces, the 17th International Conference, July 6-10, 2008, San Francisco, CA.

Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2008: Northern American Ensemble Forecast System/NCEP development oriented verification. 4th North American Ensemble Forecast System Workshop, 6-8 October 2008, Camp Springs, Maryland

Zhu, Y., 2008: Ensemble Based Probabilistic Forecast Verification, 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics, 20-24 January 2008, New Orleans, Louisiana

Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth, Yuejian Zhu and Weiyu Yang: Impact of a Stochastic Perturbation Scheme on NCEP’s Global Ensemble Forecast System. AMS 88th Annual Meeting and 19st AMS conference on Probability and Statistics, 20-24, January 2008, New Orleans, LA.

Cui, Bo, Zoltan Toth, Yuejian Zhu and Dingchen Hou: Statistical Downscaling Approach and its application. AMS 88th Annual Meeting and 19st AMS conference on Probability and Statistics, 20-24, January 2008, New Orleans , LA.

Hou, Dingchen, Kenneth Mitchell, Zoltan Toth, Dag Lohmann and Helin Wei: Challenges in River Flow Forecasting. CAHMDA - III International Workshop. Hydrologic Prediction: Modelling, Observation and Data Assimilation. Melbourne, Australia, 9-11 January, 2008.

Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth, Yuejian Zhu and Weiyu Yang: Evaluation of Experimental Streamflow Forecast from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). 4th NAEFS Workshop, Oct. 6-8, 2008, Camp Springs, MD.

Peña, M.: Extension of NAEFS: Intraseasonal Forecasting. 4th North American Ensemble Forecast System Workshop. October 2008. Camp Springs, MD.

Peña, M.: Merging statistical and dynamical forecasts for hurricane prediction. 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. May 2008. Orlando, Florida.

Peña, M. and Z. Toth, January 2008: Dynamics of error growth in climate prediction systems. 18th Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society. January 2008. New Orleans, Louisiana.

Song Y. and Z. Toth, 2008: Overview of Plans for Winter T-PARC Winter T-PARC workshoP, Main theme of Winter T-PARC, October 8-10, 2008, Camp Springs, MD

Song, Y. Z Toth, and SMajumdar 2008: Update on the Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program, Working Group on Space-based Lidar Winds Feburay 5-8, 2008, Monterey, CA

2007

Zhu, Y., Z. Toth, L. Lefaivre and M. Rosengaus, 2007: Current Status and Future Plans for NAEFS. 22nd Conference on WAF and 18th Conference on NWP, 25-29 June 2007, Park City, Utah

Toth, Z. and S. J. Majumdar, 2007: Meeting Summary: NOAA THORPEX Science Workshop. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 88, 717-719.

Zhu, Y., and Z. Toth, 2007: NCEP Global Ensemble Based Anomaly Forecast. 22nd Conference on WAF and 18th Conference on NWP, 25-29 June 2007, Park City, Utah

Zhu, Y., and Z. Toth, 2007: NCEP Global Ensemble Based Anomaly Forecast. AMS Forum: Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather (Expanded View), 14-18 January 2007, San Antonia, TX

Zhu, Y. 2007: Objective Evaluation of Global Precipitation Forecast In special collection of: International Symposium on Advances in Atmospheric Science and Information Technology, Beijing, China, 2007 p3-8

Hou, D., K. Mitchell, Z. Toth, D. Lohmann and H. Wei, 2007: Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting with the Coupled GFS-Noah Modeling System. NOAA/OHD Seminar, May 23, 2007.

Hou, Dingchen, Kenneth Mitchell, Zoltan Toth, Dag Lohmann and Helin Wei: Evaluation of Streamflow Forecasts based on Coupled GFS-Noah Ensemble Forecasting System. AMS 87th Annual Meeting and 21st AMS conference on Hydrology, 14-18 January 2007, San Antonio, Texas.

Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth, Yuejian Zhu and Weiyu Yang: A Stochastic Perturbation Scheme for Representing Model Related Uncertainty. European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2007, Vienna, Austria, 15-20 April, 2007.

Hou, Dingchen, Kenneth Mitchell, Zoltan Toth, Dag Lohmann and Helin Wei: Evaluation of Streamflow Forecasts Based on Coupled GFS-Noah Ensemble Forecasting System. European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2007, Vienna, Austria, 15-20 April, 2007.

Joo-Hyung Son, Zoltan Toth and Dingchen Hou: An Analysis of Different Bias-Correction Algorithms in a Synthetic Environment. European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2007, Vienna, Austria, 15-20 April, 2007.

Hou, Dingchen, Kenneth Mitchell, Zoltan Toth, Dag Lohmann and Helin Wei: Ensemble Streamflow Forecast with the Coupled GFS-Noah Modeling System. The 3rd HEPEX Workshop, Stresa, Italy, 27-29 June, 2007.

Peña, M. and Z. Toth, April 2007: The North American Ensemble Forecast System. THORPEX North American Regional Committee Meeting. April 2007. Mexico, City, Mexico.

Peña, M. and H. van den Dool: Consolidation of multi-method forecasts of Pacific SST. 18th Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society. January 2007. San Antonio, Texas.

Song, Y. Z. Toth, and S. Majumdar 2007: Update on the Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program, Working Group on Space-based Lidar Winds, Feburay 6-9, 2007, Miami, FL

Song, Y., Z. Toth and S, Majumdar 2007: Update on the Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program

2006

Zhu, Y., 2006: Upgrade to NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Component of the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS). 24-26 May 2006, Montreal, Canada

Zhu, Y., Z. Toth, R. Wobus and Q. Liu, 2006: Recent Change in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System. 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, 29 January – 2 February 2006, Atlanta, Georgia

Zhu, Y., and Z. Toth, 2006: Recent Development of Northern American Ensemble Forecast System. International Symposium on Regional Ensemble Prediction, Tropical Cyclone and Heavy Rainfall Forecast. 10-12 October, 2006 Chengdu, China

Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth and Yuejian Zhu: A Stochastic Perturbation Scheme for Representing Model Related Uncertainties. THORPEX 2006 PI workshop, NCEP, Camp Springs, MD, Jan. 17-19, 2006.

Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth and Yuejian Zhu: A Stochastic Parameterization Scheme with NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System. 18th AMS conference on Probability and Statistics. Atlanta, GA, Jan. 29-Feb. 2, 2006.

Zoltan Toth, Roman Krzysztofowicz and Dingchen Hou: Bayesian Processor of Ensemble for Precipitation Forecasting: A Development Plan. 2005 Joint Assembly, American Geophysical Union, Baltimore, MD, 23-26 May, 2006.

Joo-Hyung Son, Zoltan Toth and Dingchen Hou: An Analysis of Different Bias-Correction Algorithms using Synthetic Data. North America Ensemble Forecast System workshop, Montreal, Canada, 24-26, May 2006.

Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth, Kenneth Mitchell and Helin Wei: Ensemble River Routing Forecast Forced by GEFS Runoff Output. 2nd International Conference on Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting and Hydrology, 5-8 June 2006, Boulder, CO, USA.

Joo-Hyung Son, Zoltan Toth and Dingchen Hou: An Analysis of Different Bias-Correction Algorithms ina Synthetic Environment. The Second THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 December 2006, Landshut, Bavaria, Germany.

Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth and Yuejian Zhu: A Stochastic Perturbation Scheme Developed for the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System. The Second THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 December 2006, Landshut, Bavaria, Germany.

Hou, Dingchen, Kenneth Mitchell, Zoltan Toth, Dag Lohmann and Helin Wei: Ensemble Riverflow Forecasting Forced by GEFS Runoff Forecasts: Preliminary Experiments. The Second THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 December 2006, Landshut, Bavaria, Germany.

Hou, Dingchen, Kenneth Mitchell, Zoltan Toth, Dag Lohmann and Helin Wei: Experimental Medium-range Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Based on Coupled GFS-Noah Ensemble Runoff Forecast. The third NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop, 31 Oct. – 2 Nov., 2006, Laurel, MD.

Hou, Dingchen, Jun Du, Zoltan Toth, Yuejian Zhu and Richard Wobus: Representing Model Related Uncertainty in Ensemble Forecast Systems. Third NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop, 31 Oct.–2 Nov., 2006, Laurel, MD.

Hou, Dingchen, Kenneth Mitchell, Zoltan Toth, Dag Lohmann and Helin Wei: Experimental Medium-range Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Based on Coupled GFS-Noah Ensemble Runoff Forecast. The First Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA) PIs Meeting, 14-16 August 2006, Tucson, AZ.

Song, Y., Z. Toth and S. Majumdar 2006: Results from Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) 2006 programs, West Pacific AGU, July 24-27,2006, Beijing

Song, Y., Z. Toth and S. Majumdar 2006: Recent results from Winter Storm Reconnaissance program at NCEP, Working Group on Space-based Lidar Winds, January 17-20, 2006, Key West, FL

2005

Zhu, Y., 2005: Recent Development with NCEP and Northern American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS). 10th Workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems. 14-18 November 2005, Reading, United Kingdom

Zhu, Y., and Z. Toth, 2005: Extreme Weather Events and Their Probabilistic Prediction by NCEP Ensemble Forecast System. Rainstorms, Inundation and Disaster Mitigation Workshop, 15-17 September 2005, Zhengzhou, China

Zhu, Y., 2005: Calibration of Model Forecasts Based on NCEP Ensembles. IAMAS, 2-11 August 2005, Beijing, China

Zhu, Y., and Z. Toth, 2005: Calibration of QPF/PQPF Forecast Based on the NCEP Global Ensemble. 19th Conference on Hydrology, 9-13 January 2005, San Diego, California

Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth, Yuejian Zhu and Richard Wobus: Model Diversities and their implication in mult-model ensembles. The Ed Lorenz Symposium, 85th American Meteorological Society, San Diego, CA, Jan. 13th, 2005.

Wei, Mozheng, Zoltan Toth, Richard Wobus, Yuejian Zhu, Dingchen Hou and Bo Cui: NCEP global ensemble: Recent developments and plans. 2nd SRNWP Workshop on Short Range Ensemble, Bologna, Italy, 7-8 April, 2005.

Toth, Zoltan and Dingchen Ho: Representing model-related errors in Ensemble forecasting. European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2005, Vienna, Austria, 24-29 April, 2005.

Toth, Zoltan, Dingchen Hou, Mozheng Wei, Richard Wobus, Yuejian Zhu and Bo Cui: Recent developments with the NCEP ensemble forecast systems. 2005 Joint Assembly, American Geophysical Union, New Orleans, LA, 23-27 May, 2005.

Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth and Yuejian: A Stochastic Physics Scheme for Global Ensemble Forecast and Its Effects on Precipitation Predictions. 5th International Scientific Conference on the Global Energy and Water Cycle, Costa Mesa, CA, 20-24 June 2005.

Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth and Yuejian Zhu: A Stochastic Physics Scheme with NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System. 17th AMS conference on Numerical weather Prediction, Washington DC, Aug. 1-5, 2005.

Peña, M. and Z. Toth, April 2007: The North American Ensemble Forecast System. THORPEX North American Regional Committee Meeting. April 2007. Mexico, City, Mexico.

Peña, M. and H. van den Dool: Consolidation of multi-method forecasts of Pacific SST. 18th Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society. January 2007. San Antonio, Texas.

Peña, M.: Verification of NCEP probabilistic climate forecasts. NATO Advance Study Institute. June 2005. Gallipoli, Italy.

Peña, M. and Z. Toth: Initial and model related errors in climate numerical forecasts. NATO Advance Study Institute. June 2005. Gallipoli, Italy.

Song, Y., L. Holland, Z. Toth, S. Majumdar 2005: Recent Forecast Impact Results from WSR and ATREC, Working Group on Space-based Lidar Winds, Februray 1-3, 2005, Sedona, AZ

2004

Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth, Yuejian Zhu and Richard Wobus: The effects of Model Diversity in Cumulus Parameterization and Horizontal Diffusion on Global Ensemble Forecasting. Joint WGNE/WGSIP/WGCM Workshop on Ensemble Methods, From Weather Forecasting to Climate Change, Met Office, Exeter, UK, 18-21 October 2004.